Russian crude oil exports to China have reached successive all-time highs in early 2026, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), tanker-tracking firms, and China’s own customs statistics — driven by steep price discounts and a sharp pullback in purchases by India.
The IEA’s February 2026 Oil Market Report confirmed that Russian crude deliveries into China surged to an all-time high in January, even as overall Russian supply declined. Tanker tracking data cited by the IEA showed Indian imports of Russian crude fell to 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in January — the lowest level since November 2022, and down from an average of 1.7 mb/d throughout 2025.
The trend has intensified further in February. According to an early assessment by Vortexa Analytics, cited by Reuters, Russian crude shipments to China are estimated at 2.07 million barrels per day (bpd) for February — surpassing January’s estimated rate of 1.7 million bpd. Kpler’s provisional data placed the February figure even higher, at 2.083 million bpd, up from 1.718 million bpd in January. India’s Russian crude imports are estimated to fall further still, to 1.159 million bpd in February, according to Kpler.
According to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, China had resumed its position as the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude. Bloomberg’s February 3 report put overall Russian crude shipments at 3.27 million barrels a day in the four weeks to February 1. In a subsequent update covering the period through February 15, reported by Bloomberg on February 17 and confirmed by Russia’s Izvestia, average Russian crude exports had risen further to 3.39 million barrels per day — growth recorded for a fourth consecutive week, though still some 480,000 barrels per day below the peak reached in mid-December 2025.
Pricing has been a major driver. Russia’s flagship Urals grade, previously flowing predominantly to India, is now priced at $9–11 a barrel below benchmark ICE Brent for deliveries to China — the widest discount in recent years — making it attractive to China’s independent “teapot” refineries, which have not shied away from sanctioned supplies in recent years.
The shift reflects intensifying geopolitical pressure on India. China has replaced India as Moscow’s top client for seaborne shipments since November, as Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine and US pressure on New Delhi to reduce Russian oil imports forced India to scale back purchases to a two-year low in December, according to Reuters.
For annual context, official Chinese customs data reported by TASS showed that China’s total oil imports from Russia fell 7.1% in full-year 2025 to 100.72 million tons, valued at $49.8 billion — a 20.4% decline in value terms — though Russia remained China’s largest oil supplier throughout the year. The current surge therefore represents a significant reversal of that annual trend, driven by a rapid reorientation of Russian export flows rather than structural growth in Chinese demand.
