An assessment by the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) of ten leading projects in Russia’s national carbon registry found that, while compliant with domestic law, they do not meet key international eligibility criteria. As global climate regulations tighten, this standards gap is becoming strategically significant.
The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its financial phase on 1 January 2026, requiring importers of carbon-intensive goods to account for embedded emissions and purchase CBAM certificates. For Russian exporters, this creates a direct carbon cost exposure.
In aviation, the second (mandatory) phase of ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) begins in 2027. Airlines must cancel eligible emissions units from ICAO-approved programs. No Russian crediting mechanism is currently approved under CORSIA, limiting the usability of domestic carbon units for international compliance.
Domestically, the registry lists roughly 85–90 climate projects with projected issuance of around 90–95 million carbon units, about one-third of which have been issued. Trading activity remains concentrated in the Sakhalin Climate Experiment, where quota units are exchanged at modest prices. Outside this pilot, demand is driven primarily by corporate ESG reporting rather than regulatory obligation.
The core constraint is regulatory alignment. CORSIA recognizes only approved crediting programs that meet international standards for additionality, monitoring, and verification. Russia is working to adapt its framework and pursue eligibility, but until its units are internationally recognized, access to external compliance markets will remain limited.
